Arabica prices fell in May compared to April levels, whereas Robusta prices saw a significant increase, which resulted from a reduction in the difference between the two types of coffee. Consequently, the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator fell by 1.7%, from 160.46 U.S. cents per pound in April to 157.68 in May. This is the lowest level recorded since August 2010. The price volatility increased only for Robusta.
With regard to market fundamentals, it is estimated that total production of all exporting countries in crop year 2011/12 was around 131.9 million bags, compared to 134.2 million in 2010/11. The second estimate of Brazil's production in crop year 2012/13 predicts a harvest of at least 50.4 million bags, representing an increase of 16% compared to the previous crop year. Production increases are also expected in other exporting countries, fueled by coffee prices in recent years. It will take much more accurate data in order to establish initial estimates of total production for the crop year 2012/13.
However, the ongoing dynamism of world consumption should make it possible to maintain the balance between supply and demand. Included in this report is a brief analysis of consumption over the past 22 years.
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